Countries with the toughest rules on nicotine pouches often have the biggest illicit markets. That is the headline finding of the Global Illicit Nicotine Pouch Report 2026 from market-data firm TobaccoIntelligence, which Tobacco Reporter covered on 26 October 2026. The report found illicit pouch markets are prevalent where governments use bans, nicotine-content limits, online sales restrictions and high taxes.
This explainer sums up what the report says, who commissioned it, and what it means if you are an adult buying pouches in Europe. Every figure below comes from the report and the coverage linked in the sources.
The headline numbers
According to the report, as covered by Tobacco Reporter and Asian Trader:
- Germany, where nicotine pouches are effectively banned, was still the world's ninth-largest pouch market in 2026, at an estimated $195 million. The report estimates 614,000 adult users there consuming 658 million pouches.
- France, which banned pouches, ranked 22nd worldwide at about $34 million, with an estimated 200,000 users consuming 114 million pouches.
- In France, a TobaccoIntelligence survey found only 32% of pouch users knew about the ban in July 2026, up from 24% before it came into force.
- The global pouch category is estimated at around $10 billion, with more than 20 million consumers and compound annual growth of 44% between 2021 and 2026.
Why the report says strict rules feed illicit trade
TobaccoIntelligence's own summary of the research lists the drivers: high consumer demand, weak enforcement, low barriers to manufacturing, and the fact that pouches are small, easy to transport and high in value for their size. The coverage highlights three policy tools in particular.
Nicotine limits
In Norway, 68% of users surveyed used products above a proposed limit of 12 mg of nicotine per gram. Modelling by Tamarind Intelligence, TobaccoIntelligence's parent company, suggested the proposed limit could roughly double the volume of illicit product in the Norwegian market. The report also found that ultra-strong pouches of up to 50 mg per pouch were most common in markets where the category is banned or effectively blocked by very low limits.
Online restrictions
In 2025, only about 10% of pouch-related web traffic in Sweden went to foreign websites. In Germany, where the category is effectively banned, the share was about 90%. The report says consumers in heavily restricted markets are more likely to turn to overseas sites, which can mean buying products that are illicit and untaxed in their own country.
Taxes
In Hungary, the government collected HUF 731 million in pouch taxes in 2025. TobaccoIntelligence estimates that is less than 40% of the HUF 1,889 million that would have been due if every product sold had been taxed. The report warns that big tax gaps between neighbouring countries encourage cross-border trade.
"Illicit" is broader than counterfeits
One of the more useful points in the report is that illicit trade is not just organised crime. According to TobaccoIntelligence, a product can be illicit because it is:
- a counterfeit copy of a real brand,
- smuggled,
- missing a required regulatory notification or authorisation,
- sold without the tax being paid,
- non-compliant, for example a banned flavour or a strength above the local limit, or
- sold through a prohibited channel.
The report stresses that the same product can be fully legal in one country and illicit next door. It also warns that illicit products may be made in unmonitored facilities or contain substandard ingredients.
Who paid for the report
Asian Trader notes that the report was commissioned by British American Tobacco, the maker of Velo. TobaccoIntelligence says its data and analysis are its own independent assessment. Readers should weigh the findings with that funding in mind, especially as BAT has a commercial interest in how the EU regulates pouches.
What it means for adult buyers in Europe
- Local law decides what is legal where you live. A pouch sold legally in one EU country can be banned, over the strength limit or untaxed in another. Pouches remain banned in France and effectively banned in Germany, and buying there is not legal. Our country guide and shipping page list where Pouchstore.com delivers.
- Check strength against local limits. Several countries cap nicotine per pouch. Our strength guide explains how milligram ratings work.
- Buy recognised brands from traceable sellers. The report's warning about counterfeits and unmonitored production is a reason to stick with established brands such as ZYN and VELO from a retailer that clearly states what it sells and where it ships.
What comes next
The EU is expected to revisit pouches in its next Tobacco Products Directive and Tobacco Taxation Directive. The report calls for consistent rules between neighbouring countries, simple rules businesses can follow and authorities can enforce, better market data, and more cooperation between governments against illicit products. It concludes that the pouch market will keep growing over the next five years, and that how well it is regulated will decide how much of that growth stays legal.
For background on the EU side, see our explainers on the EU nicotine pouch tax compromise and France's pouch ban for travellers.
Pouchstore.com sells nicotine pouches to adults aged 18 and over only. Nicotine is addictive.